There exist no permanent friends or foes in international relations. Relations between countries are steered by national interests. USSR cast vote in 1947 for acceptance of Pakistan as a member of United Nations. Since then, a vicissitude is visible in bilateral relations of Pakistan and USSR. Diplomatic ties with Pakistan were established in October, 1949; but USSR embassy in India had already started functioning in June, 1947. Initially, trade of agricultural products was started by export of jute to USSR and import of flour from there. However, USSR sided with India on Kashmir issue and creation of Pakhtunistan. In 1958, American U-2 plane flying from air base in Peshawar was brought down by a Soviet rocket that strained the relationship. Then, in 1960s, under economic and technical cooperation in search of oil and gas, five oil bearing and two gas containing deposits of industrial value were discovered by Soviet experts. Tashkent Declaration of 1966 with successful intermediation of USSR was a major breakthrough in relations that settled Indo-Pak conflict. Soviet-Pak cooperation progressed further when Pakistan declined to extend 10-years’ lease of a strategic American base near Peshawar. After creation of Bangladesh in 1971, the bilateral relations reached climax when the largest industrial mega-corporation Pakistan Steel Mills was established in 1973, with techno-financial assistance of Soviet Union.
The ongoing cooperation suffered severe blow on Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, when Pakistan took part in the US-backed jihad. However, after disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991, there has been a gradual realization both in Islamabad and Moscow to normalize the relationship for cooperation in security, economic, commercial, energy and political fields. In the wake of regional and global realignments of the countries in different groups and alliances, rapprochement in Pak-Russian relations is evident.
Let us have an analysis of the various dynamics causing a renaissance of Pak-Russia relationship.
Emulating the Chinese strategy to focus on Western China after securing robust development in the Eastern side, Russia has also formulated plans to integrate its least developed territories of Siberia and Russian Far East (RFE) to regional economies. Russia thinks that rich natural resources and geopolitical characteristics of Siberia and RFE have the potential to reshape not only the economic and political landscape of the region but also of the world.
Under global paradigm shift, Russia has redefined its national priorities. Russian think-tanks view that Pakistan is an extremely strategic trans-regional gateway state with China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that functions as China’s only dependable non-Malacca sea route to Indian Ocean. Through proper channel of CPEC, Russia intends to access the warm waters of Gowadar port that would provide the shortest and convenient link to the markets of South Asia, Middle East and Africa.
Realizing the strategic significance and economic potential of Pakistan, Russia now encourages its inclusion in various regional forums and blocs. Yaroslav Lissovolik, the Chief Economist of Eurasian Development Bank has researched extensively for how Russia can expand its global economic and institutional reach. He has proposed the creation of BRICS PLUS structure to diversify BRICS by going beyond the largest heavy weights. The Russian economist reflects that BRICS PLUS could become true representative of all the regions and continents of the developing world by integrating with the regional cooperations where each BRICS country is a member. Hence, Pakistan could be part of BRICS PLUS for being part of SAARC and SCO. Consequently, Russian foreign policy is driven to improve Russia’s economic connectivity with Pakistan because of CPEC’s potential to link together the EAEU, SCO, SAARC, and even the GCC.
In yet another foreign policy approach, Russia envisages Pakistan’s role in Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) whereby Putin has a strategic vision to integrate Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Five EAEU members states including Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia have unanimously supported the idea of pairing the EAEU development and CPEC that is a flagship project of BRI investment of over US$ 60 billion. Reaping the economic benefits of CPEC is enshrined as one of the major goals in Russia’s Foreign Policy Concept of 2016, regarding South Asia. This would add another layer to Russia’s strategic partnership with China where two great powers can collaborate on joint projects in CPEC.
Russian experts observe that the Russian-led structure of EAEU can benefit the most with the grand strategy of GEP, if connectivity with CPEC is achieved. Pakistan with a market of over 200 million and youth bulge of 65% is big attraction. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, two Central Asian member states of EAEU, would find potential customers in Pakistan for their products, thus assisting their economic diversification efforts. By enabling this connectivity and freeing up these economies to trade with Pakistan, both Russia and China would dispel any impression of undermining the sovereignty of smaller partners through economic means.
Above analysis highlights the factors that have prompted a clear shift in the Russian foreign policy. It was demonstrated at the recent online Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting of security advisors. The hosting Russia overruled Indian objection to displaying of Pakistan’s new political map at the forum.
The writer is Country Manager of a Pakistani bank in Kazakhstan, with interest in Central Asian studies. He can be reached out at rafeeq_kz@yahoo.com
