World is getting multipolar in the twenty first century where international relations would not be determined by interactions between powers but blocs. Therefore, the trend of regional connectivity and integration has spurred.
Certain gurus of international relations maintain that Russia has realized that it is hard to integrate into Greater Europe. Besides, if West is falling, the East is rising. Therefore, Moscow intends to develop an eminent position in a multipolar world through Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) by pairing Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Russia kept deferring involvement with CPEC due to India’s sensitivity, since New Delhi is fiercely opposed to CPEC. But ultimately, Russia has opted not to sacrifice its economic interests. Russia also assumes that its economic cooperation with Pakistan may encourage India to reach a pragmatic compromise with its immediate neighbour. This development may rejuvenate the dormant forum of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Pakistan is the third most populous member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and is a trans-regional gateway state that can create favourable conditions for expanding Russia’s presence in the global markets, primarily by diversifying its exports and increasing the volume of non-resource based exports.
It is historical fact that erstwhile USSR could not get access to the warms waters through military invasion of Afghanistan. But now Russia is being greeted to join the marine route of Gowadar port via economic corridor of CPEC. It is similar to failed attempt of Mongolian empire to unite Eurasia by force and successful effort for the same through trade route of the great ancient Silk Road.
In this backdrop, a significant progress was made in December 2019 when a 64-member delegation of Russian businessmen led by Russian Minister of Industry and Trade travelled to Pakistan for a four day visit. Under a settlement of a Soviet era debt, Pakistan has repaid US$ 93.5 million that was also a hurdle in boosting trade links with Russia. The following several billion dollar agreements were signed during the visit:
n Russia will provide a financial assistance of US$ 1 billion for the upgrading and rehabilitation of Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) project.
n Russia would supply its Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ-100) planes on both wet and dry lease with an option to purchase.
n Moscow would also help in constructing a railway track from Quetta to Taftan.
n Investments in the much-delayed North-South Gas Pipeline Projects were discussed. This project has been re-named as Pakistan Stream Pipeline Project last month with the estimated cost of US$ 2.2 billion and 26% share of Russia.
n Russia promised an aggregate investment of US$ 14 billion in Pakistan’s energy sector including a project to convert Muzaffargarh thermal power station to coal and establish a 600-megawatt coal red power plant at Jamshoro.
n The two countries resolved to increase bilateral trade which last year stood at barely US$ 700 million.
Military exercises are meant to strengthen and develop cooperation between participating countries in the interests of security and stability. After multilateral Kavkaz-2020 military drills in Russia’s southern city of Astrakhan, now Pakistan is hosting joint naval exercises between Russia and NATO countries in February 2021 as AMAN-2021 Piracy Exercise. Here, Pakistan is asserting its strategic significance, as joint naval drills of Russia and NATO allies would take place after 10 years of those held in 2011 off the coast of Spain. Practical cooperation between Russia and NATO suspended after Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. It means defense ties between Pakistan and Russia are also growing in strength.
In a research paper titled “Pakistan’s Role in Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership” by Vladimir Morozon and Andrew Korybkov; the following policy proposals have been made to promote relationship between Pakistan and Russia:
n There should be increased interaction between the professional communities of both countries at academic, diplomatic and business levels.
n Pakistani embassy in Moscow should be engaged to arrange CPEC tours in parallel with the Russian visits to Pakistani think tanks and government bodies. Once Russia becomes better acquainted with CPEC, the bilateral ties could be taken to next level.
n A reliable and mutually acceptable banking system is imperative to enhance trade between Pakistan and Russia.
Russian policymakers have unlearnt coercion in favour of persuasion. Therefore, building mutually beneficial relations has come naturally to Russia. China has also exemplified that national power and global clout are now based on economic muscle, not military might. Pak-Russia bilateral relations would progress further, since Pakistan is offering to transform geographical weakness of landlockedness in Russia and Central Asia to an advantage of marine link by regional economic integration with CPEC.
The writer is Country Manager of a Pakistani bank in Kazakhstan, with interest in Central Asian studies. He can be reached out at rafeeq_kz@yahoo.com
