It has been over one year now that Jammu & Kashmir groans under lock down with heavy Indian military presence and intermittent shoot outs. The state was split on August 5th 2019, with the status down graded as union territories, administered from Delhi. The planners of the move in their wisdom thought that the imposition could speedily help integrate the state and start with the assimilation process after divesting it of its constitutional status. Nothing has moved that way . Even the Kashmiri leadership, with pro India dispensation, is incarcerating in jails and confinement. Resettlement of Kashmiri pundits seems beyond the pale of the present government. Tall claims of massive investment and revival of tourism is appearing to be a pipe dream. The folks of the valley are completely alienated after indignation meted out to them one year ago. As this was not enough fiasco at the Gulwan valley and bloody clashes with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army have drastically changed the power equation and brought in China as a robust contestant. China had taken a strong exception to the unilateral change of status of the state , declaring Ladakh as a union territory. China had an irredentist claim over Ladakh, latent in nature, but now has surfaced in the open. As this was not enough . The Indian maps showed Aksai chin, Chinese part of Ladakh as her territory and the union minister had been bragging in the parliament to retrieve it from the Chinese control. He had vowed to conquer Gilgit Baltistan as well.
The BJP government not even in its wildest imagination could have conceived the consequences of its missteps.In the absence of formally demarcated international boundary between the two countries , It has at the same time exposed the fraility of the Actual Line of Control,Lac.The Lac is now a matter of interpretation depending on who digs the heels at which point and at what time.
In the sensitive region of eastern Ladakh, China has once for all unhinged Indian plans while its supply lines to strategic areas were now quite vulnerable than ever before. People’s Liberation Army hasn’t moved in to withdraw and slicing of Lac could be the norm now all along over 3000 km border.
Coercive diplomacy has paid India very little . Constant pounding of line of control with Pakistan has hardly helped her . The case of Nepal is a glaring example , after the blockade of the country for so many months in 2015 by India, pressurising her for changes in the constitution, Nepal not only withstood the pressure but has moved towards an assertive postion . The Nepalese parliament has approved the country’s map which showed a vast stretch under Indian control as her territory . China and Nepal are working closely on the construction of an all weather tunnel road through the Himalayan range connecting Nepal with the autonomous region of Tibet. This would certainly provide more space and leeway to Nepal, notwithstanding its heavy dependence on India as a land locked country.
China’s blitz action at Gulwan should not be seen as a mere military ploy. It has a strong underlying economic thrust to build a favourably inclined eco system close to its Belt Road Initiative. Eastern Ladakh has a fairly great significance in this regard. Approaches to the Karakoram pass are to be secured equally. BRI could only be turned into a reality as the opening platform of Ladakh is free from any encumbrance.
Flux along the Lac may be seen in a broader context with china’s outreach being extended through the CPEC towards strait of Hormuz and to Horns of Africa and Indian Ocean. Dijibuti figures out as a crucial destination where the Chinese have got a toe hold to set up a base for the provision of rest and resupply. It is indeed a confluence between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea with its proximity to global shipping lanes. Dijibouti hosts bases to other countries including the US as well. It is emerging as a gate way to Europe and Africa for the fibre optic links of over seven thousand miles extending from Pakistan . Laying of huge net work is a handi work of a Chinese company. It is now a pivot in expanding trade and economic ties by China with fastest growing economies in Africa.
In the Indian Ocean, China has been able to strike a deal with Maldive , obtain a lease of over forty years of an island Fedhoo Findhu where an infrastructure is being built, of docking and tracking facility close to the busiest shipping lanes. In Sri Lanka China already has its presence at the port of Hambantota.
India has its own stakes as a regional power in the Indian Ocean which cannot be wished away. She would like to protect its vital interest and take possible measures to neutralise efforts of the adversaries. Indian ambitions however, are not adequately backed by its existing capacity. There is a wide gap. Spending on its navy is just one third of what china is spending on its navy.
It has so far put up surveillance posts at Andaman, Seychelles,Madgascar, and Mauritius. India’s reliance on the quad of Asia pacific along with US, Japan and Australia is but natural . US has a ring of military bases from Okinawa in the up north to Guam in the south encircling any hostile move. China is equally circumspect and doesn’t have to upset regional status quo which may hit its larger interest. This is despite the retaliatory measures taken by the two countries to close their counsel offices. Chinese build up in the Indian Ocean is mainly to secure its shipping routes while working out BRI as an alternative. This option will be both cost effective and time conserving.
China had been in the past extending offers to India to join the Belt Road Initiative which she had been straight away declining . BRI is heading at a pace which is irreversible . In one’s estimation India’s reluctance to be part of the regional economic uplift, is incomprehensible more so when it is in partnership with China at the BRICS and Shanghai cooperation organisation, SCO.The concept of BRI is reflected so obviously in the outcome documents of the two organisations. India’s maritime security concerns can only be allayed if she was part of the Initiative . It is a matter of time, the sooner she realises the benefits of the initiative the better it is . Would it happen so ! With the incumbent leadership in India , there is no ready answer to the question.
The writer is an author, former Interior Secretary and Adjunct faculty at LUMS
