Mr Modi since last few months is trying to rewrite the Tibetan book of living and dying. He is suffering from directional delusion as far as dealing with Pakistan is concerned.
Sense of grandeur is converting into paranoia, especially, when, one after the other every assertion made by the tea boy ended up as fake news.
As per the reports and grapevine to some, India has deployed few of its strategic weapon systems in the last week of March, Intended towards Pakistan. Indian strategic thinking has ossified and its strategic elite is basking under April sun at the beaches of Goa .
This behaviour is blamed to the election tantrums of saffron brigade. Indian election are being held in seven phases, in each phase different constituencies are contested. It will become interesting when, by, 21st April the contest will be voted in almost all the constituencies of Indian held Kashmir. Results will be announced on 23rd may.
From 21st April till 23rd May are the proverbial interesting times. As per opinion polls due to the Rafael air craft scandal, the currency corruption conundrum and the battering by Pakistani defence forces, BJP will bag 210 to 220 seats (60 less than what they have now).
Congress will likely get over 100 lok Sabah seats (about 60 more than what they have now). Modi is losing popularity , next BJP government will be politically compromised, unable to change constitution the way saffron brigade wanted to change. BJP has sensed this and to alter the course wants to create water shed and a black swan event. This has to be done in the phase of mid elections.
The, to be, black swan event has to do something with Pakistan so that all the Hindu votes is bagged under the patriotic band wagon. The Indian states bordering Pakistan are very significant in any eventuality. In Rajasthan area, Gujarat , Haryana and Hamachal Pardesh, BJP will win majority. Hamchal Pardesh with 97% hindus and being adjoining to Indian Kashmir has already changed the demography of Jammu. Hiryana a cut out of Indian Punjab has already resulted into the diminishing of Sikh power.
Master Tara Singh’s sacrifices for a separate Sikh land was very cunningly circumvented by dividing Punjab in 1960s into three states, that too with hindu majority. The effect of this cartographic fact will figure out in coming days, if India chooses to deploy its black swan operations. These are the facts on ground. This is post Westphalia era , world actually changed forever after Paris peace pact of 1928.
Old world order once replaced by the new one also questioned the ages old just war theory. The political manifestos were challenged by the counter manifestos, the deaths of millions in the two world wars was not a small lesson in human history and the sinews of rationality.
Modi is again challenging the same and bringing the world to the brink of strategic precipice. He has already created a strategic stability crisis by creating conditions due to which armed forces of both the countries are now at a state of hyper alertness, adrenaline running permanently through the veins of military machine. Secondly he by supra nationalist rhetoric has converted hindus into potitical zombies ready to do anything for hindutva cause.
There is an adage, “when law is on your side, pound the law, when the facts is on your side pound the fact, when neither is on your side, pound the table”. Modi is continuously pounding the table and is about to turn it turtle.
What is his grand strategy, what type of war it’s going to be, and strategist are clueless. Escalating to level 19 of escalation ladder on a go and trying to keep it limited is just mind boggling. True that every war does not corresponds to a model, but this one is sheer madness. If the enemy proves to be resilient, then non military factors are more important to annihilate the enemy.
Behind this all war mongering, there could be a grand strategy to wage a different war against Pakistan through non military factors, and, it is not hyper war. Balance of power was a concept which remained prevalent for many decades, Morgenthau kept on explain it in his the famous “politics among nations”. Then during cold war and beyond balance of terror was the buzz word .
Pakistan has achieved a different kind of balance with the adversary. This is balance of advantage. This actually takes care of both the earlier concepts of balance of power and balance of terror. Balance of advantage is the concept of achieving the application differential in strategic and conventional domain by applying superior means at the time and place anywhere in the complete spectrum. With this the war fiction and the futurology are at cross roads to each other.
Pakistani nation has be ready for anything because any future war will be run through an educated and disciplined population. This is the domain where grand strategy and survival intermingles with our futurology and war fiction.
The writer is a freelance contributor on security related issues. He is also a Ph.D Scholar who can be reached at sindhulatif@gmail.com Twitter: @Abid_Latif55
