The political parties in India have switched their campaigns to top gear for the upcoming general elections scheduled to be held in seven phases from April 11 to May 19, 2019. On way to the final drawdown, a variety of political ploys, maneuvers and manipulations are being employed by the major competitors to win hearts and minds of the voters in their respective constituencies. Besides open alliances and coalitions, some underhand seat adjustments are also being made in electorates where uncertainty looms large. Indian National Congress (INC) and other opposition parties are generally seen fishing in troubled waters of the Bhartia Janata Party (BJP).
While most of the parties are relying on the strategy of secrecy to reap maximum political advantages, a leading BJP legislator Subramanian Swamy played a bravado by prematurely letting his party’s cat out of the bag last week. He disclosed that his party has succeeded in breaking up the Muslim vote by dividing the community into Shia and Sunni voters. He further spilled the beans with claims of having already secured votes of the former community for BJP in coming elections. According to MP Swamy, they had to work long and hard to loop in one of the two major Muslim factions so that BJP’s run for second term in government is not jeopardized by the ‘united vote’ of Muslims going against the ruling party. While some observers may term it MP Swamy’s naivety, the political strategists consider the revelations as a deliberate gambit by BJP aimed at confusing the community in the upcoming elections.
Similar to 2014, there are two major alliances competing countrywide for 2019 elections: National Democratic Alliance (NDA) made up of BJP and 20 other national/regional parties (including Shiv Sena, Janata Dal), and United Political Alliance (UPA) comprising Congress and 21 smaller national/regional parties. BJP-NDA alliance is campaigning for Narendra Modi’s second term in government while INC-UPA coalition is campaigning for Rahul Gandhi as their unanimous choice for the premiership slot. Besides above, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) are other major competitors especially in Uttar Pradesh (UP), which will be the main battleground for all the parties because it offers huge swing vote of Muslims (19%) and scheduled castes (21%) which may become a deciding factor.
PM Modi launched BJP-NDA’s election campaign in January for his second term in the office. Their campaign at present is seeking more dividends from Hindu nationalism compared to that of 2014 when they apparently focused on the agenda of job creation and economic development as well. Presently the parties are feeding primarily on the current issues for their respective interests such as India’s recent conflict with Pakistan, employment, and national security. The opposition parties have, however, developed special interest in projecting sore points in Modi’s recent tenure in government, including Rafale aircraft deal scam, agrarian distress, unemployment and construction of Ram Temple at Babri Mosque site in Ayodhya.
In this backdrop, MP Swamy’s disclosure runs counter to the impression some BJP stalwarts are creating that the Muslims have become politically irrelevant in India. Their argument is based on premise that the BJP won election in 2014 with sweeping majority despite Muslims voting overwhelmingly against it. Their point stands further established as BJP again won two-thirds majority in UP assembly in 2017 by-elections without Muslim support. Prima facie, the notion is being spread on purpose to create feeling of dejection within Muslims to look at their votes to be of no use in elections. In fact, while Muslims make 15% of the total Indian population, they are 19% in UP where an intense war-for-vote is to be fought. BJP is well aware that when seats are won and lost with difference of merely a couple of thousand votes, millions of Muslims in major constituencies of UP, Bihar, Assam, Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana will not merely swing the mood in favor of one party, they may prove a deciding factor in more than two hundred seats all across India.
However, considering the ongoing culture of divisive politics and communal polarization in India’s election campaigns, the numerical factor may not become decisive this time as well. The phenomena has already surprised many when despite having majority population in certain electoral constituencies, no Muslim could make it to Lok Sabha in 2014. In UP, with 80 MPs slots, there are at least 16 seats where Muslims make 50 to 20% of the population, however Muslim candidates failed to win even a single seat from Muslims majority electorates. In fact, Muslim votes tend to get divided between major parties including Congress, SP, BSP, regional parties and independents. These independent, called ‘vote katua’ in Hindi, are often funded by the BJP/others to cut votes.
The modus operandi of ‘divide and rule’ though comes more natural with the ruling BJP, yet the strategy of splitting the Muslim vote bank for their respective benefits has been successfully utilized by the Congress and others at different points of time. Similarly, fielding of strong candidates by the Congress, SP and BSP parties will once again ensure that BJP alliance wins their unlikely seats with a handsome margin. What the Indian Muslims and other minorities can do is to ensure that their votes are not swindled away yet again by engineered division or false promises. They need to be discreet while playing safe at the same time.
One considerate course of action has recently been shown by President AIMIM (All Indian Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen) Asaduddin Owaisi that ‘Congress alone does not has the capacity to defeat PM Modi. There is a need for all non-Congress and Non-BJP parties to come together on a common platform to defeat the Saffron party’. That says it all.
