There is no denying the fact that the World is now witnessing the Second Cold War. It is a grim reminder of the struggle between the United States of America and the Soviet Union. This time the struggle is between the United States of America, its allies and the People’s Republic of China. Analysts and researchers, both liberals and realists, are convinced that it is the policies of the Western world that have given rise to the present state of affairs between China and the U.S. After the fall of the Soviet Union, it was thought that the view of liberal Democracy would prevail over the entire globe, and that there is no challenge remaining for the Western bloc, which has turned out to be a fallacy. The center of power is shifting towards Asia. Many countries will be caught in the middle, forced to choose sides, just like it happened in the first Cold War. Even now, the Ukraine invasion by Russia is a reminder, that the last Cold War still possesses its remnants. China is refraining from any such advance but it is only a matter of time. Earlier, Soviet Union was located at the doorstep of Europe, China is securely located in Asia, and this time, the Cold War will not be decided through conventional means. It could turn out to be either of two alternatives, a disastrous war that will destroy the world as we know it, or a new balance of shared power and hegemony between China and the U.S.
In the 1980s, China was a poor country. It had a massive challenge of overpopulation, unemployment and lack of technology. The Western world saw China as an opportunity to expand the vision of liberal democracy. The idea of Chinese nationalism and their rich historical roots was grossly neglected. At the time, the Cold War with the Soviet Union was raging. The West saw China as an opportunity to expand the Free Market. The U.S began investing in China. Many American companies opened shop in China, this resulted in influx of resources and technology transfer to China. Meanwhile, Chinese leadership was deeply committed to the economic revival of China and transformed itself from an agrarian country to an industrial giant. The liberal democracies never saw what they were doing by giving China the tools to contest the West on a global scale. The sheer numbers of China and the willingness to learn, innovate and apply were enough to push the country into a back-breaking boost towards economic heights.
The second reason, how China became a challenge for the Americans, is the invitation of China into the World Trade Organization. Once again, this was done, while ignoring the idea that the Chinese history is full of achievements in trade and commerce. It was the Chinese who invented paper, gunpowder, silk, weaving and many other essential innovations and then traded with these goods all over Asia, Central Asia, Middle East and as far as Europe. By giving access to the WTO, the Western World revived the trading giant that China had always been. Only this time, it would do it on a global scale with the strict guidelines of the Communist party and manufacturing base spread all over China. In just two decades, the economic output of China began overshadowing the GDP of Europe and America. And now the West is waking up before a country that will beat them at the game of free market production.
Just like the First Cold War, there are now blocs of countries aligned with the U.S and China. China has made great progress in terms of forming alliances through trade, commerce and diplomacy. The U.S on the other hand has gathered Australia, India and Japan in an alliance to counter the influence and hegemony of China in the world. Australians have been skeptical and have shifted gears by joining many initiatives by Beijing. Japan has been more aggressive as it recalls the events of the Second World War where the Japanese forces were defeated by Chinese soldiers and many areas were contested between China and Japan. Further, Japan is a satellite country of the U.S with no army of its own, relying on the Americans for defense. India is a clear case of adversarial role. Pakistan became a close ally of China right from the independence of China. India having a bitter rivalry with Pakistan and countering the growing influence of China has entered into many projects with the U.S that are anti-China. The Sino-Indian war of the 1960s is the reminder to the Indians of the force that they face in the event of a war. Moreover, there are territorial conflicts between China and India at the borders that remain unresolved.
Another analogy from the First Cold War between Soviet Union and the U.S versus the new Cold War between China and the U.S, are the contested regional disputes. While Cuba and Vietnam were the areas of interest in the First Cold War, similarly, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South China Sea are the new struggle in the present scenario. The U.S vows to turn Taiwan and Hong Kong into a pit of challenges for Beijing. Unlike the Soviet Union, China is not adopting a hostile and expansionist policy. China has resorted to peaceful economic growth while focusing on its strengths. It has done so with parallel growth in military progress. Its armada does not match that of the U.S but still possesses a potent number of land, air and marine deployments across Asia and around its borders. And it is not willing to accede any of its territories to smaller countries due to pressure from the Western bloc and has dictated terms, time and again before the United Nations. Any misadventure could lead to a dangerous conflict and could turn nuclear, which is the ultimate deterrent, even for the U.S.
China owes its rise to the wrong and uncalculated policies of the U.S. The ignorance of China’s historic legacy. The failure to slow down China has resulted in the new Cold War. The Realist vision of International Diplomacy, a reflection of the old Cold War is back in action with all its glory. The Americans have failed in playing a leadership role in the world. As a Superpower during their peak years, they committed irresponsible errors by invading Afghanistan that absorbed their energies and resources for over twenty years, they wrongfully invaded Iraq over lies and later apologized for it, which killed thousands of innocent people and gave rise to the ISIS and they continue to assist Israel in committing war crimes in Palestine. The American hegemony has been one of the most unbalanced. Now, China offers an alternative. It can only be hoped that the World will avoid another Cold War but data suggests otherwise. President Donald Trump took a hostile view of China and the Biden administration is no different. Perhaps they are out of choices because of the poor policies that were adopted in the past. It may be too late to counter China now. China still has many challenges to face, both domestic and external, but it is clear that the Second Cold War will play out over the coming years, perhaps decades. It can only be hoped that these two great countries will find common ground and work towards a better tomorrow for humanity and the planet before it is too late to avoid a catastrophe of a global scale.
The Writer is Chairman of Jinnah Rafi Foundation
