DI Khan District has faced catastrophic floods, droughts, and cyclones in recent years that have killed and displaced thousands, destroyed livelihoods, and damaged infrastructure.
Climate change raises the prospect that these and other natural hazards will increase in frequency and severity in the coming decades—a stark reminder that the district is one of the country’s most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
Climatic changes are expected to have wide-ranging impacts on DIKhan district with reduced agricultural productivity, increased variability of water availability, increased soil erosion along river Indus and increased frequency of extreme climatic events, Abdul Haleem Baloch agricultural expert said.
Addressing these risks requires the mainstreaming of climate change into national strategy and policy; and climate-smart investments in infrastructure, businesses, and skills.
Adapting to these impacts may include: development or use of crop varieties with greater heat and drought tolerance, modernizing irrigation infrastructure and employing water-saving technologies, integrated watershed management, reforestation of catchment areas and construction of additional water storage, diversification of energy mix including investment in renewable and small hydropower projects, improved weather forecasting and warning systems, retrofitting of critical energy infrastructure, and construction of dikes or village protection walls.
Crops are categorized into two: Rabi and kharif. Rabi crops are sown in autumn i.e. October–
December and is harvested in spring (March–April). Wheat is the major Rabi crop. Crops sown in summer are called kharif crops. The kharif crop season is generally longer in Pakistan, starting with sugarcane in February, cotton in March–May, rice in June–July and maize in July–August.
The major patterns are: (i) rice–wheat, (ii) maize–wheat, (iii) cotton–wheat, (iv) Sugarcane & wheat, and (v) coarse grain-wheat, and some other minor patterns.
Crops grown in both irrigated areas and those under spate farming systems are highly sensitive to the amount of water available and temperature variability. It is estimated that with rise of temperature (+0.50C–20C), agricultural productivity will decrease by around 8%–10% by 2040. Different simulation studies, using the crop–growth simulation model, estimated a decrease in yield of major crops, specifically for wheat and rice, and the length of growing season in four agro climatic zones of Pakistan. The model predicted the largest decrease of around 14 days for 10C rise in temperature in the growing season’s length of wheat in the northern mountainous region compared to southern Pakistan, the agriculture expert said.
The climate change has impacted and strained the agriculture sector in the region and has disrupted the entire pattern of cultivation. The sowing and harvesting of different crops especially wheat has changed considerably in terms of months depending on rain patterns and weather. The causes and effects are; First of all, In the rain fed/ flood irrigated areas, the availability of water is dependent on rains, which has changed its pattern. The monsoon rains are either scarce or too heavy impacting on rain fed/flood irrigated areas. Scarce rains make the area barren and heavy rains benefit the rain fed areas and damages the flood irrigated regions resulting in damage to flood channels and causing floods. Similarly, the winter rains required in the months of December and January when the crops need water the most have shifted to March and April which instead of doing good adversely affects the crops.
Second, The sowing of wheat and grain used to be done in the month of October but due to severity of weather has been shifted to November. Similarly, harvesting used to done in May has shifted to April due to extreme hot weather.
Third, the new variety of seeds introduced by the Agriculture Department to combat the effects of climate change has not been used by farmers due to lack of knowledge & lack of access to the facility.
Fourth, due to recent flash floods from Suleiman Ranges, the height of lands has risen by 3-4 feet due to deposit of heavy silt and requires extensive leveling and preparation of land for cultivation and small farmers do not have the financial capacity to undertake the task.
The Agriculture expert added that “What is needed is to immediately mobilize seeds and tractors.”
Sowing the Rabi crop starts in the last week of September, which is now and continues into early or middle of November. From the now inundated area in plains alone one may expect to harvest 20,000 tons of wheat, 11,000 ton of chick peas, 8,4000 ton of edible oilseed and 7,000 ton of coriander,according to the agricultural expert .
Supporting farmers with the Rabi crop will restore their damaged lives. As many of these farmers have lost their means of production (including seeds) in the flood or were impoverished due to the droughts in the preceding years, aid on a crash basis is needed.
Some of the seeds may be mobilized by farmers, but the larger part will not. Moreover, the surface of land has risen by 3 feet due to heavy deposit of silt during recent floods. The extensive meetings of Agriculture experts of Agriculture Department with farmer communities in the target areas for dissemination of information on the impacts of climate change on agriculture must be initiated and steps to be taken to mitigate effects.
Providing financial support, modern technology, and better infrastructure will improve the livelihoods of farmers, reduce poverty, and uplift rural communities. Strong and effective linkages of the farmers shall be developed with the Agriculture Department of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to tackle challenges and provide better crop production in the District.
