Being an important maritime state in the Indian Ocean region (IOR), Pakistan is blessed with over 1000 km long coastline and the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) covering about 290,000 Sq. Km including extension of continental shelf (50,000 Sq. Km) which was approved by the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (UNCLCS) in 2015. The strategic importance of Pakistan within this region has increased especially since the new millennium. There were a number of events since then which acted as catalyst to focus-shift from land to maritime domain like convergence and divergence of the national interests of different states right after 9/11. Since then, the region has been going through changing geopolitics which involves all sorts of interaction among states.
As piracy activities in oceans all over the world soared sky high in the turn of 2006, the Pakistan Navy, in a spirit of promoting peace in the high seas took an initiative and commenced the AMAN series of exercises in 2007. The AMAN series of exercises are considered as the most significant initiative of the PN in the field of maritime diplomacy and with its seventh installment as of February 2021, this biennial exercise proves to be a game changer for Pakistan Navy in the next following years, especially when it comes to the supremacy in the Indian Ocean. It is for this very reason India has been on its toes and with now Russia also joining the exercises, the Indian government is growing more restless.
Exercise AMAN-21 is being held at a time when regional and global economic milieus has been adversely affected by Covid-19 in previous past months and with much of the aviation industry being inflicted by heavy losses, Pakistan is cognizant in becoming a huge Maritime nation. Pakistan has a significant coastline and is arranged in closeness to the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Eden. Pakistan is bound to assume a pivotal role in the availability in the Indian Ocean due to its geographical advantage and with cooperation in China’s ‘Belt and Road’ (BRI) activity- a mega structure initiative for connectivity through land and sea lanes. CPEC has additionally enhanced Pakistan’s dominance in the Indian Ocean. The cornerstone of this project is the geo-strategically placed Gwadar Port. Due to its strategic positioning, this port over time has become the bedrock of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Gwadar can play an instrumental role in transforming Pakistan’s economy. Considering the additional distance ships have to travel to reach Gulf Countries from the Indian ocean, hence, Gwadar has the potential to be developed into a full-fledge regional hub and a trans-shipment port in the future. Therefore, naval exercises such as the AMAN 21 are required often and at scale such as the current series of exercises. These exercises are hence expected to fortify the discernment of Pakistan’s naval dominance and create more cordial relations with nations which have stakes in the Indian Ocean. India, for this very reason has always been weary of Pakistan’s naval supremacy. Although Pakistan’s naval fleet is quite small in comparison to India’s but in an age where diplomacy edges wars, the PN’s initiative of collaborating with other maritime nations in a series of exercises, asserts diplomatic supremacy over India. And now with Russia joining the exercise this time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public threat in 2016, to isolate Pakistan internationally has hit a brick wall. Modi had since been working diligently towards this end but to his dismay, things didn’t go according to plan. The level of interest many nations have shown in Pakistan in the recent past, including interest in Exercise AMAN-21, is a clear sign of Modi’s failure.
Success of AMAN 21 also means Pakistan being one step closer to becoming a member of IORA. Pakistan, has not been a member of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) – an inter-governmental organization aimed at strengthening maritime cooperation and sustainable development within the Indian Ocean region. It has 22 full members and 9 dialogue partners who meet annually or more often, as collectively decided. Pakistan’s application for enrollment of IORA has been lying in its secretariat since 2001 and has been opposed by one single nation, India. Enrollment of IORA would assist Pakistan with playing a more powerful and indispensable part in the local maritime security worldview. While large scale maritime exercises are of incredible incentive in their own right, IORA offers more scope since decision making rests with the Council of (Foreign) Ministers. As it is notable, military to military co-activity is consistently more grounded and more dependable, in the event that it follows political convergence of respective foreign policies and not the other way around. Its priority and focus areas extend to a wider canvas of maritime security, trade and investment facilitation, fisheries management, disaster risk management, tourism and cultural exchanges, academics, science and technology, blue economy and women economic empowerment.
Moreover, Russia’s eagerness to join this exercise and train alongside NATO forces can also be seen as a sign of how Putin wants to have friendly ties with the US while still having some diplomatic involvement in the Southern Asian territories that have strong ties with the American government. Pakistan and Russia progressively come to understand that they need each other. President Vladimir Putin’s vision of a Greater Eurasian Partnership is deficient without Pakistan’s investment – equivalent to it’s difficult to synergies the Eurasian Union with the BRI like he prior proposed without a rapprochement in relations thinking about that Pakistan has the BRI’s lead undertaking of CPEC – much the same as Pakistan’s CPEC+ vision of turning Pakistan into an important power player, can’t occur without good relations with Moscow. Since both of their militaries affect international strategy, it bodes well why “military diplomacy” is driving their rapprochement with the help of AMAN-21. It is important to note here that the last time Russian and NATO forces participated in joint exercise was way back in 2011 and that in April 2014, NATO unanimously decided to suspend co-operation with the Russian Federation, in response to the Ukraine Crisis. Therefore, AMAN 21 can be seen as the adhesive that can mend the ties between the US and Russia that have suffered greatly ever since NATO and Russia formed the North Atlantic Cooperation Council.
In a NATO report released on 25 November 2020, Russia was clearly defined as a major threat to the western military bloc and earlier back in June, Russia also accused the NATO for beefing its influence around Russian borders, thus, AMAN 21 seems to be that first step for Russia to absolve its image from a war loving nation while also getting close to Pakistan, to India’s dismay. Now with over 30 countries taking part in this mega maritime exercise, India’s anxiety is trying to asphyxiate their desires of still having dominance over the South Asian territory.
The writer can be reached on Twitter @ShahabSpeaks
