With the world confronting global warming and accelerated glacial melting, countries like Pakistan are under severe pressure of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) that pose serious threats to human lives and infrastructure in wake of sudden flash floods especially in hilly areas.
As Pakistan falls among top ten most vulnerable countries to climate change and hosts three mountain ranges including Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalayan (HKH), rapid melting of glaciers in ranges can pose serious challenges of water availability being a crucial water source for its Indus River that serves as a lifeline for agriculture, energy and water supply.
Dr. Arun B. Shrestha, a renowned expert on glaciology and Strategic Group Lead Climate and Environmental Risks at International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has expressed concerns on escalating risks of GLOFs in the HKH region due to rising temperature. “By the end of present century, GLOF risks in this region could increase fourfold making the people living in these areas highly vulnerable to floods caused by glacial lake bursts,” he said.
Dr. Shrestha emphasized the urgent need for a coordinated global response and said, “although the HKH region contributes minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, yet it disproportionately faces the brunt of climate change impacts.”
Emphasizing global coordination to fight this challenge, he said the organizations like ICIMOD are spearheading dialogues and collaborations at local, national and trans-boundary levels to mitigate these risks. “But, the message is clear that regional efforts are insufficient without global recognition and action.”
Pakistan emits nominal carbon portion to atmosphere but it falls between the most vulnerable nations. The country has been diligently doing its bit to fight climate change challenge but it direly needs international support as the statistics about future effects of global warming are alarming.
“Around 24% decline in snow and ice within Pakistan’s portion of Indus River system, combined with a 03% increase in the melting rate of glaciers,” informed Lieutenant General Inam Haider Malik, Chairman of Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), revealing the glacial melting situation in past few decades. “These trends pose severe risks of water availability globally with Pakistan also being one of the most vulnerable countries.” Malik pointed out that Pakistan’s water management infrastructure is ill-equipped to handle the excess water during glacial melting periods, leading to floods and thereon to be followed by prolonged droughts. “This situation urgently needs international support as countries in the HKH region, like Pakistan, bear the burden of global emissions.”
Meanwhile, Dr. Furrukh Bashir, a hydro-meteorologist at Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has informed that Pakistan hosts over 7,200 glaciers of which many are retreating at an accelerated pace. “Our department has identified 36 glacial lakes as vulnerable to GLOFs, with some already experiencing outbursts in recent years such as the Shisper Glacier.”
Dr. Bashir credited modern technology and community-based early warning systems for preventing large-scale loss of life during these events. “The PMD continues to study cryosphere and issue timely GLOF alerts that are crucial for national disaster management efforts.”
The risk of GLOFs and other climate-induced disasters will increase dramatically in coming decades and Pakistan, already vulnerable due to its geographical location and reliance on glacial meltwater, faces a dual threat: floods caused by excessive glacial melt and droughts due to reduced water storage capacity.
“With Pakistan already slipping down the water scarcity level, the challenge posed by too much water during floods and too little during droughts would further exacerbate due to its insufficient storage capacity,” stated Aisha Humera Chaudhary, Secretary Ministry of Climate Change.
She mentioned to the launch of Recharge Pakistan, a program designed to use wetlands as natural water storage facilities as part of broader National Climate Change Policy that focuses disaster risk reduction, early warning systems and enhancing community resilience. “We are committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2040, with 35% conditional on international assistance. But, need international support to achieve these targets.”
Pakistan’s economy, agriculture and overall water security are intertwined with the health of HKH glaciers. As country’s storage facilities are inadequate, the consequences of erratic water availability—too much in flood seasons and too little in droughts—could cripple different sectors.
As efforts are on to tackle this situation, Ahmed Kamal, Chairman Federal Flood Commission (FFC) provides an insight into Pakistan’s efforts to upgrade its flood management systems in response to devastating 2022 monsoon floods.
“We, in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank, plan to establish six regional forecasting centers across the country focusing on vulnerable regions like Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,” Kamal said.
“These centers would enable us to more accurate forecasting and quicker responses to reduce impact of floods caused by glacial melting.”
Muhammad Ali from Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA) informed that the Authority has identified 16 potential GLOF sites, with several major glaciers—Shisper, Passu and Hussaini—already causing problems. “GBDMA is working to establish flood protection infrastructure, engage communities in disaster preparedness and issue early warnings.”
In present situation, the experts stress enhanced disaster management, sustainable infrastructure and multi-level approach with global cooperation to address climate crisis and protect vulnerable communities and resources for the future generations.
