The National Accounts Committee (NAC) on Thursday reviewed the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for first and second quarter for the years 2023-24 and approved the revised first quarter estimates of 2023-24.
The 108th meeting of the NAC was held with Secretary Ministry of Planning Development and Special Initiatives in chair, said a press release issued by the ministry. The 107th NAC meeting held in November 2023 approved the introduction of Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) in the statistical system of the country. QNA provide the pulse of the economy at a shorter interval as compared to the Annual National Accounts (ANA). The committee approved the revised first quarter estimates of 2023-24. Overall GDP of the first quarter for financial year 2023-24 has witnessed a revised growth of 2.50% as compared to 2.13% estimated in 107th NAC meeting.
Growth in agriculture has witnessed a healthy revision to 8.58% from 5.06% mainly due to upward revisions in crops posting a double digit growth of 17.66% as compared to 6.13%. The important crops, which were previously estimated based on area, has witnessed a phenomenal growth of 31.47% because of very low base in 2022-23.
The significant increase in production in final estimates of cotton increased by 108.2% to 10.22 million bales this year against 4.91 million bales last year, rice output increased by 34.8% to 9.87 million tons as against the production of 7.32 million tons last year, where as maize crop out put during the period under review grew by 5.6%.
Despite improvement in mining and quarrying from 2.15% to 7.78%, industry has witnessed a downward revision to -0.24% as compared to growth of 2.48% mainly due to downward revisions in Large Scale Manufacturing from 0.68% to -0.87% in QIM, electricity, gas and water supply from 0.08% to -12.70% and construction from 1.73% to 0.74%. The services have posted a modest improvement from 0.82% to 0.92% due to finance and insurance from -12.79% to -2.88%).
During the second quarter of 2023-24, the economy posted a modest growth of 1.0%. Agriculture has shown a growth of 5.02% as compared to same period of last year mainly due to healthy growth in important crops 8.12% because of significant growth in the final production of cotton, rice and maize, first estimate of wheat 6.7% increase in area
and cotton ginning 53.6%. Livestock is at the same level while forestry and fishing have also retained their normal growth.
Industry in Q2, like Q1, has shown a negative growth -0.84% as compared to Q2 last year. Mining & quarrying industry has witnessed negative growth of 4.17% because of decrease in production of gas -5.04%, marble -40.13%, limestone -20% and decline in exploration cost.
Large scale manufacturing, which is based on Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM), has witnessed a positive growth of 0.35% due to increase in cooking oil, garments, fertilizers, electricity, gas and water supply industry has shown a positive growth of 1.54% because of increase in output of IPPs, Hydro and Nuclear plants.
Construction industry declined to -17.59% due to decrease in production of cement by -8.7% and iron & steel -2.5% as well as decline in general government expenditure.
Services industry has shown a nominal growth of 0.01% in Q2 of 2023-24. Detailed analysis of the industry reflects a mixed trend. Wholesale and retail trade has witnessed a growth of 2.11% because of positive growth in agriculture output and LSM. Transport and storage industry has increased by 1.13% because of increase in output of railways and road transport. Due to high inflation, real growth in information & communication,finance & insurance and public administration and social security industries has become negative at 5.43%, 11.1% and 16.18% respectively.
Further, both education and human health and social work industries have posted negative growth at 0.85% and 2.53% respectively. Other private services have been estimated at 3.63% on the basis of indicators received from the sources.
Overall the forum appreciated the efforts of National Accounts team of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and key stakeholders including Ministry of Planning Development and Special Initiatives, Ministry of Finance and State Bank of Pakistan in preparation of quarterly GDP.
